What are the factors affecting the price change of soybean meal?

What are the factors affecting the price change of soybean meal? Let's introduce it.

1. Analysis of soybean meal supply factors
The production and consumption of soybean meal, international market and domestic market have been introduced. These factors are important factors affecting the price of soybean meal. Soybean meal supply is mainly composed of three parts: A, early inventory, which is an important part of the total output, the amount of early inventory reflects the degree of supply tension, supply shortage, price rise, sufficient supply, price decline. b. Current production. The current yield of soybean meal is a variable, which is subject to soybean supply, soybean crushing income, production cost and other factors. c. The import volume of soybean meal. China is about to join WTO, and the internationalization of soybean meal market is getting higher and higher. In recent years, China has become a soybean meal importing country, and the influence of international market on domestic soybean meal market is also growing. Therefore, we should timely understand and grasp the international market, international price level, import policy and import volume changes. The United States is a major soybean meal exporter. Every Thursday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture releases the U.S. export sales reports, which contain the U.S. soybean meal export data, including the U.S. export data to China, which has a relatively important reference value.
When analyzing the supply and demand of soybean meal, it should be noted that the storage time is short. In the south, the storage time of soybean meal is generally 3-4 months, while in the north it can be stored for about 8 months. Therefore, the turnover of soybean meal in the spot market is very fast, and traders hope to complete the transaction in a short time. Once the storage time is too long, the quality of soybean meal changes, the manufacturer can only reduce the price of sales. This characteristic of soybean meal storage determines that the regional price of soybean meal will fall immediately once centralized supply occurs. For example, the centralized arrival of imported soybean meal will affect the supply and demand relationship in the surrounding areas of the import port, resulting in the price drop of soybean meal. The short storage time of soybean meal not only promotes the market flow of soybean meal, but also causes frequent fluctuation of soybean meal price.
In addition, other factors affecting the supply are: domestic soybean processing capacity, the relative production cost of substitutes (such as other meal, corn, etc.).
2. Analysis of soybean meal demand factors.
Soybean meal demand usually consists of domestic consumption, export and final merchandise balance. a. Domestic consumption. It is not a fixed constant, but is affected by many factors. The main factors affecting the domestic consumption of soybean meal are: the development of domestic feed industry, the change of consumers' purchasing power, the change of population growth and structure, and the government's policies to encourage the development of feed industry. b. Export volume. When the output is constant, the increase of export will reduce the supply of domestic market; otherwise, the decrease of export will increase the domestic supply. At present, China's soybean meal production can not meet the domestic demand, so there is no situation of soybean meal export. c. The amount of merchandise balance at the end of the period. If the inventory increases at the end of the year, it means that the supply of goods is greater than the demand, and the futures price may fall; otherwise, it will rise. Due to the short storage time of soybean meal, the final balance data has little impact on the price of soybean meal.
The demand for soybean meal should also consider the changes of supply and demand in the international market, especially in East Asia and Southeast Asia. Consumers in Asian countries eat more poultry and pork, and the aquaculture and feed industries are relatively developed, and the demand for soybean meal is large. The economic prosperity of Asian countries has a great impact on soybean meal demand. If the economy is depressed, the import volume of Asian region will be less; if the economy recovers and grows, the import volume of soybean meal will increase.
Other factors that affect demand include: consumer purchasing power, consumer preference, supply and demand of substitutes, population change, commodity structure change and other non price factors.
3. The price ratio of soybean meal, soybean and soybean oil
Soybean meal is a by-product of soybean. Every ton of soybean can produce 0.2 tons of soybean oil and 0.8 tons of soybean meal. The price of soybean meal is closely related to the price of soybean. The yield of soybean will affect the price of soybean meal every year. If the soybean harvest is good, the price of soybean meal will fall, and if the soybean harvest is not enough, the price of soybean meal will rise. At the same time, there is also a correlation between soybean oil and soybean meal. If the price of soybean oil is good, the price of soybean meal will fall. If the soybean oil is unsalable, the output of soybean meal will decrease and the price of soybean meal will rise. Soybean crushing efficiency is one of the important factors to determine the soybean meal supply. If the squeezing efficiency of oil and fat factory is always low, some factories will stop production and reduce the market supply of soybean meal.
4. Seasonal factors of soybean meal price change
Generally, the months after soybean harvest in November is the peak season for soybean meal production, and April to August is the off-season for soybean meal production. However, the demand for soybean meal generally turns to be vigorous from March to October. During this period, the price of soybean meal will fluctuate greatly. The price of soybean meal fluctuates with the purchase and inventory changes of soybean meal producing areas.
5. The impact of international market price
In recent years, the import and export trade of soybean meal is very active. The import of soybean meal accounts for more and more domestic consumption. The price of soybean meal in international market (especially the trading price of CBOT soybean meal futures contract) has directly affected the domestic market. At present, the quality standard of soybean meal for feed is in accordance with GB 10380-89. The quality uniformity of imported soybean meal is good. After the imported soybean meal is graded according to the national standard, generally, except the crude fiber index can only meet the national standard grade III standard, other indicators can reach the national standard level II or above. Due to the long transportation time, the freshness of imported soybean meal is generally worse than that of domestic soybean meal, and the lysine index is slightly lower than that of domestic soybean meal. Therefore, in the spot trade, the price of imported soybean meal is about 100 yuan / ton lower than that of domestic soybean meal. Due to the large quantity and concentration of imported soybean meal (generally, 30000-50000 tons per ship), the situation of short-term oversupply will be caused by each cargo ship entering the port, and the local soybean meal price will also drop accordingly.
6. Relevant agricultural, trade and food policies
The national agricultural policy often affects the farmers' choice of sowing. For example, in recent years, the state has guided farmers to increase soybean planting through adjusting relevant industrial policies, thus directly increasing the domestic soybean production; for example, the State encourages the development of feed industry and breeding industry, directly expanding the demand for soybean meal.
From the situation over the years, the change of national import and export policy has a great impact on the total import and export of soybean meal in China. For example, in 2002, the State Administration of Taxation adjusted the export tariff of soybean meal, which strengthened the competitiveness of domestic soybean meal in the international market, and had a very obvious impact on promoting the export of soybean meal in China.
In recent years, more and more countries have implemented new food policies due to the occurrence of avian influenza, mad cow disease and foot-and-mouth disease and considering the impact of genetically modified food on human health. The implementation of these new food policies has a direct impact on the aquaculture industry and the demand for soybean meal.
        

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