What is black futures?

What is black futures? Black refers to iron, coal, coke and steel in this industry chain. Black futures are futures stocks associated with these varieties. There are mainly iron ore, coking coal, coke, steam coal, screw steel, wire rod, plate, ferrosilicon, manganese and silicon.

Black five categories: coking coal, coke, steam coal, iron ore, rebar.
Ferrous materials are the general name of iron, chromium and manganese in industry. It also includes these three metals, especially alloy ferrous steel and steel. The opposite of ferrous metals are nonferrous metals. In fact, pure iron and chromium are silvery white, while manganese is silver gray. Since the surface of steel is usually covered with black Fe3O4, manganese and chromium are mainly used to smelt black alloy steel. That's why they are "misclassified" as ferrous metals.
The classification of ferrous metals also has its significance, because these three metals are the main raw materials for smelting iron and steel, and iron and steel stocks occupy an extremely important position in the national economy, and are also an important indicator to measure a country's national strength. The production of ferrous metals accounts for about 95% of the world's total metal production.
What is the status quo of black futures?
The macro part will not be carried out, and the current attitude is not loose or tight. According to the research, people's psychological acceptance of this matter is also increasing. Even if there is any action, it will not have a big negative impact on everyone's mood and expectation as in the first half of the year. From the industry point of view, this part of the factors need not be too worried.
Supply side - according to our estimation, the crude steel output of the whole year will eventually decline this year, because the capacity of intermediate frequency furnace is more than what you expected, so we can not only see that the crude steel output has reached a new high, the removed part will be larger, and it will be reduced in general.
For the screw thread part, the steel bar output in the table in June was close to 630000 tons per day, while the historical peak was 634700 tons. The crude steel output in the table can supply rebar almost to the top. If the increment of electric furnace in the later stage can't be raised, there is no need to worry about the influence of the supply end of screw thread.
In terms of electric furnaces, new electric furnaces may be built in both coastal and inland areas in July, and there will even be new openings without certificates.
Now the key point is policy. From the survey in the first half of the year, it will be a little loose and "Mr. can produce it"; but now the attitude towards electric furnace is "wait and see", so the supply side in the future will be tight.
In terms of capacity concept stocks this year, the target has been overfulfilled. According to the data, it has reached about 5800, but it does not mean that it will not work in the second half of the year, because the first half of the year is mainly about the completion of the tasks in digital terms. Now there are some designated targets in the production of blast furnaces, which have not been implemented in place. These problems will be solved in the second half of the year, and some places may catch up before October Therefore, de capacity in the second half of the year will still play a role on the supply side.
Demand side - based on the estimation of apparent steel demand, this year there will be 1-2% growth, slightly better than expected.

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