The relationship among stock market, dollar, gold and crude oil
Dollar, gold, crude oil and stock market, which seem to have little correlation, are inextricably related. The following will analyze this relationship for you.
1、 Stock market and crude oil price
If the stock market falls, it is generally considered to be a sign of a bad economic situation, which means a decline in crude oil demand. As fewer people buy crude oil and the supply exceeds demand, the oil price will naturally fall.
On the contrary, if the stock market goes up, the oil price will also rise. In this case, there is a positive correlation between stock market and oil price.
2、 Dollar exchange rate and crude oil price
The relationship between crude oil and US dollar is different from that of gold and US dollar. The price of gold is influenced by the exchange rate of the US dollar. The price of crude oil reflects a more interactive relationship.
The rise in crude oil prices will affect the world economy, including the United States, the world's largest consumer of crude oil. The inflation pressure brought about by the rise of crude oil price will bring devaluation pressure to the US dollar, and the direct consequence of the depreciation of US dollar is that the price of crude oil priced in US dollar will also rise accordingly.
Of course, in turn, the decline in oil prices is a good signal for the economy. People's confidence in the US economy will push up the exchange rate of the US dollar, leading to a further decline in oil prices.
According to experts' estimation, the correlation coefficient between crude oil price and US dollar exchange rate is - 0.7. In other words, high oil prices tend to coexist with a weak dollar. Therefore, the trend of US dollar and crude oil price should be in the opposite direction.
3、 Gold price and crude oil price
Gold is a hedge against inflation, and the rise in oil prices means that inflation will follow, and the uncertainty of economic development will increase. At this time, the role of gold hedging will be favored by people.
There is a positive correlation between gold and crude oil. The rise of crude oil price indicates that the price of gold will rise, and the price of crude oil will decrease.
In the medium and long term, the fluctuation trend of gold and crude oil is basically the same, but the magnitude is different. Generally speaking, the price of gold is positively correlated with the price of crude oil.