Baltic dry bulk index

BDI Baltic index is composed of spot freight of several major routes Therefore, assuming that the current demand for raw materials increases, it means that the demand for freighter transportation in various countries also increases. In this case, if the increase in freight can be greater than the increase in oil price, of course, the profit can be maintained. Under this premise, the BDI Baltic index will rise, and the stock price of transportation stocks will also rise. Assuming that the demand for raw materials is still increasing, but the freight market is damaged by the increase in the supply of freighters, the BDI Baltic index will fall, and the stock price of transportation stocks will also fall. Therefore, the impact of freight is far more important than the rise and fall of raw materials .

BDI index has always been the freight index of bulk raw materials. Bulk shipping mainly transports steel, pulp, grain, coal, ore, phosphate rock, bauxite and other livelihood materials and industrial raw materials. Therefore, the operation of bulk shipping industry is closely related to the global economic boom and the raw material market. Therefore, the Baltic index can be regarded as an economic leading indicator.

Economic indicators/

The origin of history

BDI index comes from BFI international shipping index.

BFI (Baltic Freight Index) - the Baltic Shipping Exchange began to issue the daily freight rate index in 1985. This index is a comprehensive index composed of the freight rates of several traditional dry bulk shipping routes according to their importance and proportion in the shipping market. Become the trend chart representing the international dry bulk transportation market. On January 4, 1985, the index was set at 1000 points, which was composed of 13 routes. The goods transported were mainly grain, coal, mineral sand, phosphate rock and alum, and there were no time charter routes.

Over the years, in order to meet the diversified demand of the market, BFI's composition route has been adjusted several times, and a separate voyage time charter route has been added. The average value of each ship's voyage time charter route can basically represent the spot market level of each ship type. In particular, on September 1, 1999, the Baltic Exchange split the original BFI index of Panamax and Capesize into BCI (Baltic Capesize Index) and BPI (Baltic Panamax index), which is similar to the established bhmi (Baltic Handymax index) Index) is composed of three ship type freight index, and the number of routes formed by the index reaches 24. On November 1, 1999, BFI was replaced by BDI generated by one third of BCI, BPI and BHI, which was compiled by 20 large-scale intermediaries from five countries (the United States, Britain, Norway, Italy and Japan) for several important routes according to their daily freight rates. It is the most representative freight rate index for bulk shipping in the current market.

Index composition

The Baltic index consists of three parts:

Baltic handy index (BSI)

Baltic Panama index (BPI)

Baltic headland index (BCI)

Handy Max

Tonnage: below 50000 tons

Index category: BSI

Main transport goods: phosphate fertilizer, potassium carbonate, sawdust, cement

BDI weight: 1 / 3

Panamax

Tonnage: 50000 ~ 80000 tons

Index category: BPI

Main transport goods: livelihood materials and cereals and other bulk materials

BDI weight: 1 / 3

Cape size

Tonnage: over 80000 tons

Index category: BCI

Main transport goods: coking coal, coal, iron ore, phosphate rock, bauxite and other industrial raw materials

BDI weight: 1 / 3

Economic impact

Global GDP growth rate

Global demand for iron ore and coal transportation

Global grain transport demand

Global tonnage supply

Average price of international marine fuel

Important war

Large scale natural disasters

Large scale social crisis such as strike and social unrest will have an impact on shipping

The growth rate of global GDP affects the global demand for iron ore and grain transportation; natural disasters cause the shortage of materials and increase the demand for goods transportation, which makes the bulk shipping boom.

Industrial characteristics

It is mainly engaged in international transportation of goods. Its service quality and operation efficiency are based on the competition in the international market. It has the characteristics of perfect competition, and no specific organization or operator or government has the pricing power.

The industry has the characteristics of boom cycle, which is closely related to the world economy and weather.

Coking coal, coal and iron ore (exporting countries: Australia, Brazil and India; importing countries: China, Japan and Europe) have growth potential for global bulk seaborne goods, while grain maintains 200 million tons of seaborne volume per year with stable demand. As the main grain exporting countries in the northern hemisphere, the United States and Canada harvest in spring and autumn, while South America and Australia export grain and coal in March, the traditional peak season is from October to April.

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