Good news from oil price, the lowest oil price will come in three days? How much will it fall this time

International crude oil/

If we only look at the domestic situation, this year's oil price is undoubtedly relatively low. As a big oil consuming country, the decision-making power of domestic oil price is not in our hands. Because 70% of domestic crude oil consumption depends on imports, changes in international oil prices can directly affect our domestic oil prices.

Recently, international crude oil has fallen into the mire of price reduction again. There are still three days to go before our domestic oil price adjustment window. This time, it may be greatly reduced.

Take the price of Brent crude oil futures as an example. After the price of crude oil rebounded to more than US $40 in June this year, as of October 28, the days when the price of Brent crude oil futures dropped to less than US $40 / barrel were numbered, and the price fluctuated above US $40 for a long time.

Since the end of last month, the international oil price has shown a declining trend. After a one-day decline of 2.5% on October 21, the prelude of the oil price reduction officially began. As of the afternoon of November 2, the price of Buyou fell to $36.6/barrel, with a daily low of $35.74/barrel, the lowest since the end of May.

WTI crude oil prices also performed poorly, falling to around us $34 / barrel for a time. Judging from the performance in recent trading days, the international oil price did not show the intention of rebound. It seems that the price will remain low for a period of time.

According to the investigation of some institutions, the decline of international crude oil price is mainly caused by the rebound of epidemic situation in Europe and the United States. Crude oil demand has not improved due to the dual impact of epidemic situation and economy, so crude oil price is difficult to have a strong performance.

In addition, although the major oil producing countries have reached an epic production reduction agreement in the past few months, the long-term massive production reduction can not be achieved. After the first stage of the production reduction agreement, the output of crude oil will increase. Production has increased, but demand has not improved, which completely limits the oil price.

The sharp drop in international crude oil prices is a good thing for countries that rely on imported crude oil. This round of oil prices have dropped sharply. After the opening of the adjustment window for domestic finished oil prices on the 5th, oil prices are almost certain to fall.

According to the data monitored by an organization, according to the current price, the domestic oil price will be sharply reduced by more than 200 yuan / ton. In the remaining trading days, as long as the crude oil does not rise continuously, the result of price reduction will not change.

However, according to the oil price adjustment rules issued by relevant departments, our domestic oil price adjustment does not fully refer to the changes in international oil prices. When the international oil price is lower than US $40 / barrel or higher than US $130 / barrel, the domestic oil price will not be lowered or increased.

At present, the international oil price is less than $40 / barrel, so the reduction of oil price in three days is likely to touch our domestic floor oil price, which is the lowest price that domestic oil price can reach. Compared with the current oil price, the difference is not very big. You can save about four or five yuan if you fill up a tank of oil three days later.

Seeing this adjustment range, many car owners may feel that it is not necessary to wait. However, there is no way. If oil prices are allowed to fall without setting the floor price, it will cause great harm to our domestic oil companies and is not conducive to the development of domestic oil companies.

Although the international oil price has dropped by more than 10% this time, domestic car owners may not enjoy much preferential price. However, if the international oil price remains low, as long as the current oil price does not rise, it will be good for car owners.

[disclaimer] the publication of this article by finance managers for the purpose of transmitting more information does not mean that they agree with their views or confirm their descriptions. The content of this article is for reference only, and does not constitute an investment proposal. Investors operate on this basis at their own risk

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