The impact of US election results in 2020 on gold
At present, whoever is elected in the US general election will implement the stimulus bill, which is good for gold to a certain extent.
The recovery of risk sentiment caused by the certainty of the election results pushed the market up
If the result is Biden's election + democratic control of the Senate or Trump's election + Republican control of the Senate, the market will expect Congress to quickly pass a large-scale stimulus bill. Such a certain result will boost market confidence, risk sentiment and gold prices. At present, the probability of the former combination is much higher than that of the latter.
According to the RCP statistical results, Biden's winning rate is 7 percentage points ahead of trump, and Biden's support rate in swing states is close to 3 percentage points. Even considering the error of data statistics and other factors, Biden's leading edge is quite high. But trump is not without a chance. Although trump lags behind in swing states, there is still hope for big ticket positions such as Texas, Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, etc.
According to the RCP statistics, trump is ahead of Biden in Texas, Ohio and North Carolina, while in Florida and Georgia, the two people's approval ratings are very close. Florida is the most noteworthy state because of its high early voting rate, early counting and early billing time.
Overall, the above two results are conducive to gold out of the rising market.
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